TrAffic LIght system for systemic Stress: TALIS3

For the purposes of financial stability, identifying financial institutions that, when in distress, could have a significant adverse impact on financial markets is important. A TrAffic LIght System for Systemic Stress (TALIS-cube) is proposed that provides a comprehensive color-based classification for grouping companies according to both the stress reaction level of the system when the company is in distress and the company’s stress level. TALIS³ can integrate multiple signals from the interaction between different risk metrics. Starting from specific risk indicators, companies are classified by combining two loss functions—one for the system and one for each company—evaluated over time and as a cross section. An aggregated index is also obtained from the color-based classification of companies. TALIS³ can be used to enhance the performance and robustness of existing systemic risk measures. An empirical analysis of the U.S. market is also provided.     

基于超效率SBM模型的珠三角区域物流效率及影响因素分析

物流效率是反映物流绩效水平的重要指标.以珠三角城市群9个地市(不含香港特别行政区和澳门特别行政区)为研究对象,基于珠三角9个地市2010—2019年的面板数据,采用超效率SBM模型和GM L指数,测算珠三角城市群各地市的物流效率值及变动趋势.研究表明:技术进步是珠三角区域物流效率提升的主要因素,综合管理水平有待提高;珠三角区域的物流效率总体处于中等偏上效率水平且变化不大,深圳市物流效率水平提升较快且效率最高,东莞市物流效率最低,珠海市效率值起伏最为明显,整个测算期间呈"W"形走势.为进一步探讨外部因素对珠三角区域物流效率的影响程度,选取Tobit模型进行回归分析,发现区位优势对珠三角地区物流效率的提升起到了重要的作用.     

Productivity impact of drought tolerant maize varieties under rainfall stress in Malawi: A continuous treatment approach

Drought tolerant (DT) maize varieties have received massive support in sub‐Saharan Africa because of their potential to protect smallholder farmers against drought‐related maize yield losses. Using four waves of household farm panel data from six districts in Malawi, we examine the impact heterogeneity of this technology on maize productivity using a continuous treatment approach. We find strong evidence of positive correlation between maize yield and adoption of DT maize varieties. On average, an increase by one hectare in the area allocated to DT varieties increases maize yield by 547 Kg/ha representing a 44% increase from the average maize yield of 1,254 Kg/ha for our sample. Our findings give evidence that DT maize technology has potential to protect smallholder farmers against drought‐related production losses. Policies that promote increased allocation of maize area to DT maize hold potential to enhance food security. Smallholder farmers especially in drought‐prone areas should be encouraged to allocate at least one‐third of the maize plot to DT varieties while breeders continue with the efforts of breeding a DT variety that is not only drought tolerant but also adapted to all weather conditions. More importantly, the government should ensure provision of timely ex ante weather information to guide farmers on decision‐making with respect to maize varietal choices.     

模糊决策法在物流供应商选择中的运用

基于物流供应商在选择过程中所包含大量不确定和模糊因素,选择影响供应商选择的指标体系,运用模糊决策理论和方法,建立关于供应商选择的模糊决策模型,为合理选择供应商提供了一种量化方法。     

A New Approach to Measuring a Multidimensional Productivity Index: An Application for 60 Selected Countries

This study aims to develop a productivity index which takes into account the multidimensional characteristics of productivities. Our multidimensional productivity index (MPI) not only measures individual productivities of economic resources but also evaluate productivity enhancing general capacities of economy. Individual productivity indices such as labor productivity are limited because they do not consider the factors, such as the globalization of economies and the market and institutional variables, that could have profound impacts on productivity. The multidimensional Productivity Index (MPI) is measured for 60 countries including 23 OECD countries and 10 Asian countries. Our methodology employs the concept of technical efficiency that allows us to measure the extent to which institutional and market factors contribute to the economic performance. Our findings indicate that standard productivity measures such as labor productivity may overestimate the overall productivity differences across the economies.     

装备制造企业动态能力评价及其实证研究

阐释了装备制造企业动态能力的概念内涵与构成要素,设计出由市场感知、组织学习、资源获取、重构与转变、协调与控制5个动态能力一级指标和20个二级指标组成的评价指标体系,采用AHP法确定指标权重。针对指标度量的模糊性与不确定性,建立了证据推理的数据融合方法,并对江淮汽车集团动态能力进行了实证分析。     

生态城项目的综合评价

首先,在考察江苏大丰、成都龙泉驿和中新天津生态城的基础上,从经济、生态和社会三维度出发,选取了30个指标,构建了多级生态城评价指标体系;其次,利用三级模糊综合评判方法系统分析了三个生态城的经济、社会和生态发展现状,得出了三个生态城市的发展状况分别为良好、优秀、良好的总体评价结果。     

知识型人力资本、价值链低端生产与广西全要素生产率关系研究

对广西1996-2015年的知识型人力资本、价值链低端生产及全要素生产率进行测算,运用回归分析法研究知识型人力资本、价值链低端生产对全要素生产率的影响,结果发现：广西全要素生产率呈“两阶段”跃升特征。知识型人力资本呈 “两阶梯”增长态势,并对全要素生产率具有显著的正向效应。价值链低端生产呈 “U”型走势,且对全要素生产率的影响呈倒“U”型。进一步研究发现,中国-东盟自贸区对广西全要素生产率增长具有推动作用,但不显著。最后提出了相关对策建议。     

人才政策可以促进企业全要素生产率增长吗*——基于地方政府人才治理视角的研究

本文使用2001—2016年我国国家法律法规数据库中针对人才出台的地方性法规及部门规章对人才政策予以定量识别,并与上市企业数据进行匹配,实证检验了地方人才政策对企业全要素生产率的影响。研究发现,人才政策能够显著促进企业全要素生产率增长。具体而言,人才政策出台数量平均每增加1条,能够促进企业全要素生产率增长约0005。机制检验证明,人才政策通过提高企业技术创新水平和纠正人力资本在企业间的错配两条路径促进企业全要素生产率增长。此外,企业及行业异质性研究发现,人才政策对非国有企业及高技术产业全要素生产率的影响大于国有企业及非高技术产业。以上发现对于当前地方政府人才治理体系建设具有较大意义,对如何完善政府人才政策促进中国经济高质量发展也具有一定启示。     

中国城市公园的标度律特征分析

科学研判城市公园面积与人口规模的关系,有利于 客观认识和指导城市的可持续发展。采用1996—2019年中 国291个地级及以上城市公园面积与人口规模数据,探究二者 之间的标度关系及其标度因子的时空演化规律,进而采用基于 标度律的公园规模修正模型度量各城市公园面积达到预期值的 程度,并对规模修正指标和人均公园面积进行比较分析,得到 如下结果。1)我国公园面积与人口规模整体呈亚线性规模缩 放关系,公园具有显著规模效应,符合城市标度律特征;时间 上呈现亚线性-超线性-亚线性的阶段性波动演变特征,空间 上分异明显：华南接近线性标度关系,华中、东北、华北、西 南呈典型亚线性关系,华东、西北呈亚线性,但标度因子偏离 度较大。2)大城市在人均公园面积排序中相对靠后,在考虑 规模效应后,排名普遍提高,说明规模修正指标能在消除人口 规模影响的基础上,有效衡量不同规模城市公园面积的水平。 标度律视角下的城市公园规模测度能够为城市人口管理和公园 面积发展的决策提供科学指导,为不同规模城市公园建设提供 可借鉴的比较标准,促进公园与人口的协调发展。